基于长期实测数据的西北地区风力发电场风速风向联合概率分布分析

兰州理工大学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (3): 115-124.

基于长期实测数据的西北地区风力发电场风速风向联合概率分布分析

李万润^*1,2,3, 张广隶^1,2, 李林⁴, 杜永峰^1,2,3

1.兰州理工大学防震减灾研究所, 甘肃兰州 730050;
2.兰州理工大学土木工程学院, 甘肃兰州 730050;
3.兰州理工大学西部土木工程防灾减灾教育部工程研究中心, 甘肃兰州 730050;
4.兰州市气象局, 甘肃兰州 730020

收稿日期:2020-01-20 出版日期:2022-06-28 发布日期:2022-10-09
通讯作者: 李万润(1985-),男,甘肃民勤人,博士,教授.Email:ce_wrli@lut.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(51568041)

Analysis on joint distribution of wind speed and direction of wind power plant in Northwest China based on long-term measured data

LI Wan-run^1,2,3, ZHANG Guang-li^1,2, LI Lin⁴, DU Yong-feng^1,2,3

1. Institute of Earthquake Protection and Disaster Mitigation, Lanzhou Univ. of Tech., Lanzhou 730050, China;
2. School of civil engineering, Lanzhou Univ. of Tech., Lanzhou 730050, China;
3. Western Engineering Research Center of Disaster Mitigation in Civil Engineering of Ministry of Education, Lanzhou Univ. of Tech., Lanzhou 730050, China;
4. Lanzhou Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou 730020, China

Received:2020-01-20 Online:2022-06-28 Published:2022-10-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为更准确地研究风力发电结构在风荷载下的结构响应,基于甘肃气象局提供的1981-2017年甘肃六地风速风向实测数据,对各地区的风速风向联合概率进行分析.抽取每天的最大极值风速及其对应风向为极值样本,统计分析得到各地区风速风向联合分布.将Gumbel,Frechet和Weibull分布函数线性化的基础上,利用最小二乘法拟合各分布函数参数,根据参数拟合结果推算各地区10,50和100年重现期的极值风速,并和各地区最大基本风速规范建议值进行对比.研究结果表明,考虑风速风向概率影响的基本风速更加符合实际情况,最大基本风速规范建议值偏于保守.

关键词: 风速风向, 联合概率分布, 基本风速, 最小二乘法

Abstract: In order to study the structural response of wind power generation structure under wind load more accurately, based on long-term field-measurement data in six regions of Gansu Province from 1981 to 2017 provided by Gansu Meteorological Bureau, the extreme value samples were selected by the extreme value sampling method using one day as the basic interval, and the joint distribution of wind speed and direction in each region was obtained through statistical analysis. Based on the linearization of Gumbel, Frechet and Weibull distribution functions, the least square method was used to fit the parameters of each distribution function. The parameters of each distribution function are fitted by the least square method, and the extreme wind speed with return periods of 10, 50 and 100 years in each region is calculated according to the parameter fitting results, and compared with the recommended value of the maximum basic wind speed standard in each region. The results show that the basic wind speed considering the influence of wind speed and direction probability is more in line with the actual situation, and the value of the maximum basic wind speed recommended by the code is conservative.

Key words: wind speed and direction, joint probabilistic distribution, basic wind speed, least square method

中图分类号:

TU391

李万润, 张广隶, 李林, 杜永峰. 基于长期实测数据的西北地区风力发电场风速风向联合概率分布分析[J]. 兰州理工大学学报, 2022, 48(3): 115-124.

LI Wan-run, ZHANG Guang-li, LI Lin, DU Yong-feng. Analysis on joint distribution of wind speed and direction of wind power plant in Northwest China based on long-term measured data[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University of Technology, 2022, 48(3): 115-124.

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