兰州理工大学学报

兰州理工大学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (5): 72-80.

• 自动化技术与计算机技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于多阶段退化建模的3D舞台威亚控制系统实时寿命预测

毛海杰*1,2,3, 李伟林1, 李炜1,2,3   

  1. 1.兰州理工大学 自动化与电气工程学院, 甘肃 兰州 730050;
    2.兰州理工大学 甘肃省工业过程先进控制重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730050;
    3.兰州理工大学 电气与控制工程国家级实验教学示范中心, 甘肃 兰州 730050
  • 收稿日期:2023-02-20 发布日期:2025-10-25
  • 通讯作者: 毛海杰(1978-),女,内蒙赤峰人,博士,副教授. Email:gsmaohj@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(62063017)

Real-time life prediction of 3D stage Wire control system based on multi-stage degradation modeling

MAO Hai-jie1,2,3, LI Wei-lin1, LI Wei1,2,3   

  1. 1. School of Automation and Electrical Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Gansu Advanced Control for Industrial Processes, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China;
    3. National Demonstration Center for Experimental Electrical and Control Engineering Education, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China
  • Received:2023-02-20 Published:2025-10-25

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摘要： 针对3D舞台威亚系统因执行电机退化导致系统寿命不足而产生安全隐患的问题,提出基于多阶段退化模型的系统实时剩余寿命预测方法.首先采用多阶段Wiener过程对伺服电机绝缘老化进行建模,并利用累积和(CUSUM)检验进行变点检测,实现阶段划分;其次考虑测量噪声的影响,借助Kalman滤波以及RTS平滑算法估计真实退化状态,并将变点检测结果融入基于期望最大化(EM)算法的参数估计过程,实现模型参数的实时在线更新与阶段更替;最后,以实时位置误差为系统性能评价指标,实现了对3D舞台威亚的系统级在线剩余寿命(RUL)预测.仿真结果表明,该方法不仅可准确识别退化过程各阶段变化时刻,且更为契合实际退化过程,能够有效提高剩余寿命预测精度,从而为后续的精准维护提供可靠依据.

关键词: 3D舞台威亚系统, 多阶段退化建模, 变点检测, 系统级实时寿命预测

Abstract: Aiming at the problem of security risks caused by insufficient system life due to motor degradation in the 3D stage Wire system, a real-time system remaining useful life prediction method based on a multi-stage degradation model was proposed. Firstly, the multi-stage Wiener process is used to model the insulation aging of the servo motor, and the CUSUM is used to detect the change point to realize the stage division. Secondly, considering the influence of measurement noise, Kalman filtering, and RTS (Rauch-Tung-Striebel) smoothing algorithm are used to estimate the true degradation state, and the change point detection results are integrated into the parameter estimation process based on the expectation maximization algorithm to realize real-time online update and stage replacement of model parameters. Finally, using the real-time position error as the system performance evaluation index, the system-level online remaining useful life prediction of 3D stage Wire was realized. The simulation results show that the proposed method can not only accurately identify the change time of each stage of the degradation process, but also better align with the actual degradation process, which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the remaining life, so as to provide a reliable basis for the subsequent precise maintenance.

Key words: 3D stage Wire system, multi-stage degradation modeling, change point detection, system-level real-time life prediction

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